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BEL Belgium First Division A · Final ·

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen

Prediction review

Hjemme form
Final score2–0Prognose 2–1
Borte form
Hjemmeseier56%
Uavgjort25%
Borteseier19%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 56% selection probability
Prediction Vunnet
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier56% selection probability
Projected score2–1CharleroiKV Mechelen
Expected goals2.64Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under51% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
56% / 25% / 19%KampresultatHjemmeseier56%1.79
Derived from 1X2 · excludes KV Mechelen win (18.9%)Dobbel sjanse1X81.1%1.23
Over 49% · Under 51%Goals 2.5Under51%1.96
Ja 52% · Nei 48%Begge lag scorerJa52%1.92
2.64 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.1 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.4%Largest probability gapCharleroi winDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Charleroi win56%1.791.6256.9%-0.9 pp
Uavgjort25%4.003.7524.6%+0.4 pp
KV Mechelen win19%5.265.0018.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Charleroi1.58

Hjemme share of expected goals 59.8%

Total expected goals2.64Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 49% · Under 51%

KV Mechelen1.06

Borte share of expected goals 40.2%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 52% · Nei 48%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Charleroi

1.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poeng7

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Borte-context · form sequence

KV Mechelen

0.80pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Poeng4

SignalBorte failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
56%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
19%
7
Points from supplied form
4
1.58
Expected goals
1.06
CharleroiKV Mechelen
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Charleroi signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02KV Mechelen signalBorte failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk44% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 56% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Charleroi vunnet 56%,Uavgjort 25%,KV Mechelen vunnet 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.64 · Over 2.5 49% · Current selection Under