Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
44% / 29% / 27%Match resultHome win44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes UD da Serra win (27.2%)Double chance1X72.8%1.37
Over 34% · Under 66%Goals 2.5Under66%1.52
Yes 41% · No 59%Both teams scoreNo59%1.69
2.08 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1——
9.0 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5——
Price comparison
Published forecast vs reference market
Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.
Displayed margin11.8%Largest probability gapUD da Serra winDifference-0.5 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Naval 1893 win44%2.272.0543.6%+0.4 pp
Draw29%3.453.1028.9%+0.1 pp
UD da Serra win27%3.703.2527.5%-0.5 pp
Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 60.1%
Total expected goals2.08Low-scoring
Dedicated goals model: Over 34% · Under 66%
Away share of expected goals 39.9%
Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 41% · No 59%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
2.60pts / matchNaval 1893
WDWWW
Played5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13
SignalHome unbeaten 5/5
Away-context · form sequence
1.40pts / matchUD da Serra
LWLDW
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7
SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
44%
Win probability excluding draw
27%13
Points from supplied form
71.25
Expected goals
0.83Naval 1893UD da Serra
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Model and market agree on HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 29%.
Match questions
Naval 1893 vs UD da Serra FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 44% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Naval 1893 win 44%，Draw 29%，UD da Serra win 27%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.08 · Over 2.5 34% · Current selection Under。