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PRT Portugal - Campeonato Nacional · Kamp ·

Naval 1893 vs UD da Serra

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.08 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr44%
Uafgjort29%
Udesejr27%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr44% selection probability
Projected score1–1Naval 1893UD da Serra
Expected goals2.08Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under66% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej59% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
44% / 29% / 27%KampresultatHjemmesejr44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes UD da Serra win (27.2%)Dobbeltchance1X72.8%1.37
Over 34% · Under 66%Goals 2.5Under66%1.52
Ja 41% · Nej 59%Begge hold scorerNej59%1.69
2.08 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.0 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.8%Largest probability gapUD da Serra winDifference-0.5 pp
OutcomePrognoseFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Naval 1893 win44%2.272.0543.6%+0.4 pp
Uafgjort29%3.453.1028.9%+0.1 pp
UD da Serra win27%3.703.2527.5%-0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Naval 18931.25

Hjemme share of expected goals 60.1%

Total expected goals2.08Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 34% · Under 66%

UD da Serra0.83

Ude share of expected goals 39.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 41% · Nej 59%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Naval 1893

2.60pts / match
Spillet5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Point13

SignalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

Ude-context · form sequence

UD da Serra

1.40pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Point7

SignalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Vundet probability excluding draw
27%
13
Points from supplied form
7
1.25
Expected goals
0.83
Naval 1893UD da Serra
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Naval 1893 signalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02UD da Serra signalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Naval 1893 vs UD da Serra FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 1–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Naval 1893 vundet 44%,Uafgjort 29%,UD da Serra vundet 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.08 · Over 2.5 34% · Current selection Under