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PRT Portugalia - Campeonato Nacional · Meci ·

Naval 1893 vs UD da Serra

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score1–12.08 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde44%
Egal29%
Victorie oaspeți27%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde44% selection probability
Projected score1–1Naval 1893UD da Serra
Expected goals2.08Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sub66% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu59% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
44% / 29% / 27%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes UD da Serra win (27.2%)Șansă dublă1X72.8%1.37
Peste 34% · Sub 66%Goals 2.5Sub66%1.52
Da 41% · Nu 59%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu59%1.69
2.08 total expected goalsScor corect1–1
9.0 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.8%Largest probability gapUD da Serra winDifference-0.5 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Naval 1893 win44%2.272.0543.6%+0.4 pp
Egal29%3.453.1028.9%+0.1 pp
UD da Serra win27%3.703.2527.5%-0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Naval 18931.25

Gazde share of expected goals 60.1%

Total expected goals2.08Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Peste 34% · Sub 66%

UD da Serra0.83

Oaspeți share of expected goals 39.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitDa 41% · Nu 59%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Naval 1893

2.60pts / match
Jucate5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Puncte13

SignalGazde unbeaten 5/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

UD da Serra

1.40pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Puncte7

SignalGazde matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Câștig probability excluding draw
27%
13
Points from supplied form
7
1.25
Expected goals
0.83
Naval 1893UD da Serra
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Naval 1893 signalGazde unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02UD da Serra signalGazde matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Naval 1893 vs UD da Serra FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 1–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Naval 1893 câștig 44%,Egal 29%,UD da Serra câștig 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.08 · Peste 2.5 34% · Current selection Sub