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POL Poland III Liga · Fixture ·

Star Starachowice vs KSZO Ostrowiec

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–22.58 expected goals
Away form
Home win25%
Draw24%
Away win52%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win52% selection probability
Projected score1–2Star StarachowiceKSZO Ostrowiec
Expected goals2.58Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under52% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes51% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
25% / 24% / 52%Match resultAway win52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (23.7%)Double chance1276.3%1.31
Over 48% · Under 52%Goals 2.5Under52%1.92
Yes 51% · No 49%Both teams scoreYes51%1.96
2.58 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
10.4 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.9%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.5 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Star Starachowice win25%4.003.6024.8%+0.2 pp
Draw24%4.173.8023.5%+0.5 pp
KSZO Ostrowiec win52%1.921.7351.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Star Starachowice1.02

Home share of expected goals 39.5%

Total expected goals2.58Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 48% · Under 52%

KSZO Ostrowiec1.56

Away share of expected goals 60.5%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 51% · No 49%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Star Starachowice

0.20pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Points1

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

KSZO Ostrowiec

2.60pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
25%
Win probability excluding draw
52%
1
Points from supplied form
13
1.02
Expected goals
1.56
Star StarachowiceKSZO Ostrowiec
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Star Starachowice signalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02KSZO Ostrowiec signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Star Starachowice vs KSZO Ostrowiec FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Star Starachowice win 25%,Draw 24%,KSZO Ostrowiec win 52%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.58 · Over 2.5 48% · Current selection Under