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LTU Lithuania 1 Lyga · Round 18 ·

FK Tauras vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–12.89 expected goals
Away form
Home win43%
Draw28%
Away win29%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win43% selection probability
Projected score2–1FK TaurasFK Neptunas Klaipeda
Expected goals2.89Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over55% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
43% / 28% / 29%Match resultHome win43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.6%)Double chance1272.4%1.38
Over 55% · Under 45%Goals 2.5Over55%1.82
Yes 57% · No 43%Both teams scoreYes57%1.75
2.89 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
9.8 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
FK Tauras win43%2.33
Draw28%3.57
FK Neptunas Klaipeda win29%3.45

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FK Tauras1.69

Home share of expected goals 58.5%

Total expected goals2.89Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 55% · Under 45%

FK Neptunas Klaipeda1.20

Away share of expected goals 41.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 57% · No 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

FK Tauras

2.60pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13

SignalHome unbeaten 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

FK Neptunas Klaipeda

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Win probability excluding draw
29%
13
Points from supplied form
10
1.69
Expected goals
1.20
FK TaurasFK Neptunas Klaipeda
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FK Tauras signalHome unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FK Neptunas Klaipeda signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

FK Tauras vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FK Tauras win 43%,Draw 28%,FK Neptunas Klaipeda win 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.89 · Over 2.5 55% · Current selection Over