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LTU Lithuania 1 Lyga · Fixture ·

BFA Vilnius vs FK Transinvest II

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–13.30 expected goals
Away form
Home win55%
Draw24%
Away win21%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 55% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win55% selection probability
Projected score2–1BFA VilniusFK Transinvest II
Expected goals3.30Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over64% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes58% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
55% / 24% / 21%Match resultHome win55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FK Transinvest II win (20.6%)Double chance1X79.4%1.26
Over 64% · Under 36%Goals 2.5Over64%1.56
Yes 58% · No 42%Both teams scoreYes58%1.72
3.30 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
10.1 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
BFA Vilnius win55%1.82
Draw24%4.17
FK Transinvest II win21%4.76

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

BFA Vilnius2.28

Home share of expected goals 69.1%

Total expected goals3.30Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 64% · Under 36%

FK Transinvest II1.02

Away share of expected goals 30.9%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 58% · No 42%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

BFA Vilnius

2.40pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

FK Transinvest II

0.20pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Points1

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
55%
Win probability excluding draw
21%
12
Points from supplied form
1
2.28
Expected goals
1.02
BFA VilniusFK Transinvest II
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01BFA Vilnius signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FK Transinvest II signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

BFA Vilnius vs FK Transinvest II FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

BFA Vilnius win 55%,Draw 24%,FK Transinvest II win 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.30 · Over 2.5 64% · Current selection Over