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JPN Japan J-League · Fixture ·

JEF Utd Chiba vs Machida Zelvia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–22.56 expected goals
Away form
Home win24%
Draw28%
Away win47%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 47% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win47% selection probability
Projected score1–2JEF Utd ChibaMachida Zelvia
Expected goals2.56Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under53% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
24% / 28% / 47%Match resultAway win47%2.13
Derived from 1X2 · excludes JEF Utd Chiba win (24.3%)Double chanceX275.7%1.32
Over 47% · Under 53%Goals 2.5Under53%1.89
Yes 46% · No 54%Both teams scoreNo54%1.85
2.56 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
9.0 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.3%Largest probability gapJEF Utd Chiba winDifference-1.0 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
JEF Utd Chiba win24%4.173.7025%-1.0 pp
Draw28%3.573.2028.9%-0.9 pp
Machida Zelvia win47%2.132.0046.2%+0.8 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

JEF Utd Chiba0.81

Home share of expected goals 31.6%

Total expected goals2.56Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 47% · Under 53%

Machida Zelvia1.75

Away share of expected goals 68.4%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 46% · No 54%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

JEF Utd Chiba

0.60pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Points3

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Machida Zelvia

2.20pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Points11

SignalHome failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
24%
Win probability excluding draw
47%
3
Points from supplied form
11
0.81
Expected goals
1.75
JEF Utd ChibaMachida Zelvia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01JEF Utd Chiba signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Machida Zelvia signalHome failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk53% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

JEF Utd Chiba vs Machida Zelvia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 47% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

JEF Utd Chiba win 24%,Draw 28%,Machida Zelvia win 47%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.56 · Over 2.5 47% · Current selection Under