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JPN Japan J-League · Fixture ·

Kashima Antlers vs Nagoya Grampus

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–12.77 expected goals
Away form
Home win55%
Draw25%
Away win19%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 55% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win55% selection probability
Projected score2–1Kashima AntlersNagoya Grampus
Expected goals2.77Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over52% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo59% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
55% / 25% / 19%Match resultHome win55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Nagoya Grampus win (19.4%)Double chance1X80.6%1.24
Over 52% · Under 48%Goals 2.5Over52%1.92
Yes 41% · No 59%Both teams scoreNo59%1.69
2.77 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
10.1 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.8%Largest probability gapNagoya Grampus winDifference-1.6 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Kashima Antlers win55%1.821.7353.6%+1.4 pp
Draw25%4.003.6025.8%-0.8 pp
Nagoya Grampus win19%5.264.5020.6%-1.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Kashima Antlers2.15

Home share of expected goals 77.6%

Total expected goals2.77Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 52% · Under 48%

Nagoya Grampus0.62

Away share of expected goals 22.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 41% · No 59%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Kashima Antlers

2.60pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13

SignalHome unbeaten 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

Nagoya Grampus

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalHome clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
55%
Win probability excluding draw
19%
13
Points from supplied form
6
2.15
Expected goals
0.62
Kashima AntlersNagoya Grampus
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Kashima Antlers signalHome unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Nagoya Grampus signalHome clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Kashima Antlers vs Nagoya Grampus FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Kashima Antlers win 55%,Draw 25%,Nagoya Grampus win 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.77 · Over 2.5 52% · Current selection Over