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BRA Brazil Serie A · Round 21 ·

Bragantino vs Corinthians

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.17 expected goals
Away form
Home win38%
Draw31%
Away win31%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win38% selection probability
Projected score1–1BragantinoCorinthians
Expected goals2.17Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under63% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo56% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
38% / 31% / 31%Match resultHome win38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Corinthians win (30.7%)Double chance1X69.3%1.44
Over 37% · Under 63%Goals 2.5Under63%1.59
Yes 44% · No 56%Both teams scoreNo56%1.79
2.17 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.8 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Bragantino win38%2.63
Draw31%3.23
Corinthians win31%3.23

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Bragantino1.19

Home share of expected goals 54.8%

Total expected goals2.17Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 37% · Under 63%

Corinthians0.98

Away share of expected goals 45.2%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 44% · No 56%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Bragantino

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Points9

SignalHome unbeaten 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

Corinthians

1.60pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Points8

SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
38%
Win probability excluding draw
31%
9
Points from supplied form
8
1.19
Expected goals
0.98
BragantinoCorinthians
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Bragantino signalHome unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Corinthians signalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Bragantino vs Corinthians FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Bragantino win 38%,Draw 31%,Corinthians win 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.17 · Over 2.5 37% · Current selection Under