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BRA Brazil Serie C · Partita ·

Ituano vs Barra SC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–12.48 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa48%
Pareggio29%
Vittoria ospite23%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa48% selection probability
Projected score1–1ItuanoBarra SC
Expected goals2.48Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto55% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano51% for the selected side
Expected corners10.9Sopra 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
48% / 29% / 23%Esito partitaVittoria casa48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Barra SC win (23.1%)Doppia Chance1X76.9%1.30
Sopra 45% · Sotto 55%Goals 2.5Sotto55%1.82
Sì 51% · No 49%Entrambe le squadre segnano51%1.96
2.48 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–1
10.9 expected match cornersCornerSopra 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.9%Largest probability gapItuano winDifference-0.8 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Ituano win48%2.081.8348.8%-0.8 pp
Pareggio29%3.453.1028.8%+0.2 pp
Barra SC win23%4.354.0022.3%+0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Ituano1.31

Casa share of expected goals 52.8%

Total expected goals2.48Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 45% · Sotto 55%

Barra SC1.17

Trasferta share of expected goals 47.2%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 51% · No 49%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Ituano

0.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Punti2

SignalCasa matches under 2.5: 4/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Barra SC

0.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punti4

SignalCasa clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
48%
Vinta probability excluding draw
23%
2
Points from supplied form
4
1.31
Expected goals
1.17
ItuanoBarra SC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Ituano signalCasa matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Barra SC signalCasa clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Ituano vs Barra SC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 1–1 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Ituano vinta 48%,Pareggio 29%,Barra SC vinta 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.48 · Sopra 2.5 45% · Current selection Sotto