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Tromso vs Sarpsborg

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–13.01 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa55%
Pareggio25%
Vittoria ospite20%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 55% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa55% selection probability
Projected score2–1TromsoSarpsborg
Expected goals3.01Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra58% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano53% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Sopra 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
55% / 25% / 20%Esito partitaVittoria casa55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sarpsborg win (20.3%)Doppia Chance1X79.7%1.25
Sopra 58% · Sotto 42%Goals 2.5Sopra58%1.72
Sì 53% · No 47%Entrambe le squadre segnano53%1.89
3.01 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–1
10.0 expected match cornersCornerSopra 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Tromso win55%1.82
Pareggio25%4.00
Sarpsborg win20%5.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Tromso2.10

Casa share of expected goals 69.8%

Total expected goals3.01Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 58% · Sotto 42%

Sarpsborg0.91

Trasferta share of expected goals 30.2%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 53% · No 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Tromso

2.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punti10

SignalCasa unbeaten 4/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Sarpsborg

1.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punti5

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
55%
Vinta probability excluding draw
20%
10
Points from supplied form
5
2.10
Expected goals
0.91
TromsoSarpsborg
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Tromso signalCasa unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sarpsborg signalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Tromso vs Sarpsborg FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Tromso vinta 55%,Pareggio 25%,Sarpsborg vinta 20%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.01 · Sopra 2.5 58% · Current selection Sopra