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NOR Norway Eliteserien · Wedstrijd ·

Tromso vs Sarpsborg

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–13.01 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst55%
Gelijkspel25%
Uitwinst20%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 55% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst55% selection probability
Projected score2–1TromsoSarpsborg
Expected goals3.01Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Boven58% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa53% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
55% / 25% / 20%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sarpsborg win (20.3%)Dubbele Kans1X79.7%1.25
Boven 58% · Onder 42%Goals 2.5Boven58%1.72
Ja 53% · Nee 47%Beide teams scorenJa53%1.89
3.01 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
10.0 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Tromso win55%1.82
Gelijkspel25%4.00
Sarpsborg win20%5.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Tromso2.10

Thuis share of expected goals 69.8%

Total expected goals3.01Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 58% · Onder 42%

Sarpsborg0.91

Uit share of expected goals 30.2%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 53% · Nee 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Tromso

2.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punten10

SignalThuis unbeaten 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Sarpsborg

1.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punten5

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
55%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
20%
10
Points from supplied form
5
2.10
Expected goals
0.91
TromsoSarpsborg
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Tromso signalThuis unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sarpsborg signalThuis matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Tromso vs Sarpsborg FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Tromso gewonnen 55%,Gelijkspel 25%,Sarpsborg gewonnen 20%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.01 · Boven 2.5 58% · Current selection Boven