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CRI Costa Rica Primera Division · Round 3 ·

Puntarenas vs Deportivo Saprissa

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–23.22 expected goals
Away form
Home win25%
Draw25%
Away win50%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win50% selection probability
Projected score1–2PuntarenasDeportivo Saprissa
Expected goals3.22Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over63% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes63% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
25% / 25% / 50%Match resultAway win50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Puntarenas win (24.7%)Double chanceX275.3%1.33
Over 63% · Under 37%Goals 2.5Over63%1.59
Yes 63% · No 37%Both teams scoreYes63%1.59
3.22 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
9.9 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin10.4%Largest probability gapPuntarenas winDifference+0.5 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Puntarenas win25%4.003.7024.5%+0.5 pp
Draw25%4.003.6025.2%-0.2 pp
Deportivo Saprissa win50%2.001.8050.3%-0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Puntarenas1.35

Home share of expected goals 41.9%

Total expected goals3.22Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 63% · Under 37%

Deportivo Saprissa1.87

Away share of expected goals 58.1%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 63% · No 37%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Puntarenas

0.40pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Points2

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Deportivo Saprissa

2.40pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12

SignalAway unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
25%
Win probability excluding draw
50%
2
Points from supplied form
12
1.35
Expected goals
1.87
PuntarenasDeportivo Saprissa
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Puntarenas signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Deportivo Saprissa signalAway unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Puntarenas vs Deportivo Saprissa FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Puntarenas win 25%,Draw 25%,Deportivo Saprissa win 50%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.22 · Over 2.5 63% · Current selection Over