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BGR Bulgaria First League · Final ·

Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv

Prediction review

Home form
Final score1–0Forecast 1–1
Away form
Home win23%
Draw26%
Away win51%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 51% selection probability
Prediction Lost
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win51% selection probability
Projected score1–1Botev VratsaBotev Plovdiv
Expected goals2.27Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under61% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
23% / 26% / 51%Match resultAway win51%1.96
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Botev Vratsa win (23%)Double chanceX277%1.30
Over 39% · Under 61%Goals 2.5Under61%1.64
Yes 46% · No 54%Both teams scoreNo54%1.85
2.27 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.3 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.1%Largest probability gapBotev Plovdiv winDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Botev Vratsa win23%4.354.2022.2%+0.8 pp
Draw26%3.853.6025.9%+0.1 pp
Botev Plovdiv win51%1.961.8051.9%-0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Botev Vratsa1.07

Home share of expected goals 47.1%

Total expected goals2.27Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 39% · Under 61%

Botev Plovdiv1.20

Away share of expected goals 52.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 46% · No 54%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Botev Vratsa

0.20pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Points1

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Botev Plovdiv

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
23%
Win probability excluding draw
51%
1
Points from supplied form
7
1.07
Expected goals
1.20
Botev VratsaBotev Plovdiv
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Botev Vratsa signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Botev Plovdiv signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk49% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 51% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Botev Vratsa win 23%,Draw 26%,Botev Plovdiv win 51%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.27 · Over 2.5 39% · Current selection Under