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ENG Angleterre - National League South · Round 1 ·

Hemel Hempstead vs Chelmsford

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score1–12.34 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile43%
Nul26%
Victoire à l’extérieur31%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile43% selection probability
Projected score1–1Hemel HempsteadChelmsford
Expected goals2.34Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de59% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
43% / 26% / 31%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26%)Double chance1274%1.35
Plus de 41% · Moins de 59%Goals 2.5Moins de59%1.69
Oui 48% · Non 52%Les deux équipes marquentNon52%1.92
2.34 total expected goalsScore exact1–1
9.3 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin10.9%Largest probability gapChelmsford winDifference-0.3 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Hemel Hempstead win43%2.332.1042.9%+0.1 pp
Nul26%3.853.5025.8%+0.2 pp
Chelmsford win31%3.232.8831.3%-0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Hemel Hempstead1.28

Domicile share of expected goals 54.7%

Total expected goals2.34Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 41% · Moins de 59%

Chelmsford1.06

Extérieur share of expected goals 45.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitOui 48% · Non 52%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Hemel Hempstead

1.80pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Points9

SignalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Chelmsford

1.20pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Points6

SignalDomicile unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Gagné probability excluding draw
31%
9
Points from supplied form
6
1.28
Expected goals
1.06
Hemel HempsteadChelmsford
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Hemel Hempstead signalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Chelmsford signalDomicile unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Hemel Hempstead vs Chelmsford FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Hemel Hempstead victoire 43%,Nul 26%,Chelmsford victoire 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.34 · Plus de 2.5 41% · Current selection Moins de