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ENG Inghilterra - National League Sud · Round 1 ·

Hemel Hempstead vs Chelmsford

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–12.34 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa43%
Pareggio26%
Vittoria ospite31%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa43% selection probability
Projected score1–1Hemel HempsteadChelmsford
Expected goals2.34Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto59% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
43% / 26% / 31%Esito partitaVittoria casa43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26%)Doppia Chance1274%1.35
Sopra 41% · Sotto 59%Goals 2.5Sotto59%1.69
Sì 48% · No 52%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo52%1.92
2.34 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–1
9.3 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin10.9%Largest probability gapChelmsford winDifference-0.3 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Hemel Hempstead win43%2.332.1042.9%+0.1 pp
Pareggio26%3.853.5025.8%+0.2 pp
Chelmsford win31%3.232.8831.3%-0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Hemel Hempstead1.28

Casa share of expected goals 54.7%

Total expected goals2.34Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 41% · Sotto 59%

Chelmsford1.06

Trasferta share of expected goals 45.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 48% · No 52%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Hemel Hempstead

1.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Punti9

SignalCasa unbeaten 5/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Chelmsford

1.20pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Punti6

SignalCasa unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Vinta probability excluding draw
31%
9
Points from supplied form
6
1.28
Expected goals
1.06
Hemel HempsteadChelmsford
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Hemel Hempstead signalCasa unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Chelmsford signalCasa unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Hemel Hempstead vs Chelmsford FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Hemel Hempstead vinta 43%,Pareggio 26%,Chelmsford vinta 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.34 · Sopra 2.5 41% · Current selection Sotto