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FRA Ligue 1 McDonald’s ® · Match ·

Monaco vs Marseille

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score2–23.66 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile38%
Nul26%
Victoire à l’extérieur37%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile38% selection probability
Projected score2–2MonacoMarseille
Expected goals3.66Ouverture match profile
Goals 2.5Plus de71% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentOui71% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
38% / 26% / 37%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.6%)Double chance1274.4%1.34
Plus de 71% · Moins de 29%Goals 2.5Plus de71%1.41
Oui 71% · Non 29%Les deux équipes marquentOui71%1.41
3.66 total expected goalsScore exact2–2
9.3 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Non snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCote juste
Monaco win38%2.63
Nul26%3.85
Marseille win37%2.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Monaco1.85

Domicile share of expected goals 50.5%

Total expected goals3.66Ouverture

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 71% · Moins de 29%

Marseille1.81

Extérieur share of expected goals 49.5%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitOui 71% · Non 29%Match profileOuverture
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Monaco

1.80pts / match
Joués5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalDomicile won 3/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Marseille

2.00pts / match
Joués5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
38%
Gagné probability excluding draw
37%
9
Points from supplied form
10
1.85
Expected goals
1.81
MonacoMarseille
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Monaco signalDomicile won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Marseille signalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Monaco vs Marseille FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–2 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Monaco victoire 38%,Nul 26%,Marseille victoire 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.66 · Plus de 2.5 71% · Current selection Plus de