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FRA França - Ligue 1 · Partida ·

Mónaco vs Marselha

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Mandante form
Projected score2–23.66 expected goals
Visitante form
Vitória da casa38%
Empate26%
Vitória visitante37%
Full model forecastVitória da casaTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVitória da casa38% selection probability
Projected score2–2MónacoMarselha
Expected goals3.66Abrir match profile
Goals 2.5Acima71% for the selected side
Ambas as equipes marcamSim71% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Abaixo 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeleçãoProbabilidadeOdds justas
38% / 26% / 37%Resultado da partidaVitória da casa38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.6%)Dupla Chance1274.4%1.34
Acima 71% · Abaixo 29%Goals 2.5Acima71%1.41
Sim 71% · Não 29%Ambas as equipes marcamSim71%1.41
3.66 total expected goalsPlacar exato2–2
9.3 expected match cornersEscanteiosAbaixo 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Não snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityOdds justas
Mónaco win38%2.63
Empate26%3.85
Marselha win37%2.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Mónaco1.85

Mandante share of expected goals 50.5%

Total expected goals3.66Abrir

Dedicated goals model: Acima 71% · Abaixo 29%

Marselha1.81

Visitante share of expected goals 49.5%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitSim 71% · Não 29%Match profileAbrir
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Mandante-context · form sequence

Mónaco

1.80pts / match
Jogos5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Pontos9

SignalMandante won 3/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Marselha

2.00pts / match
Jogos5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Pontos10

SignalMandante matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
38%
Ganhou probability excluding draw
37%
9
Points from supplied form
10
1.85
Expected goals
1.81
MónacoMarselha
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Mónaco signalMandante won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Marselha signalMandante matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Mónaco vs Marselha FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vitória da casa · Projected score 2–2 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Mónaco ganhou 38%,Empate 26%,Marselha ganhou 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.66 · Acima 2.5 71% · Current selection Acima