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ARG Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · Round 29 ·

Deportivo Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score1–12.34 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile27%
Nul31%
Victoire à l’extérieur42%
Full model forecastVictoire à l’extérieurTier A · 42% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à l’extérieur42% selection probability
Projected score1–1Deportivo MerloSportivo Italiano
Expected goals2.34Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de59% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
27% / 31% / 42%Résultat du matchVictoire à l’extérieur42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Deportivo Merlo win (27.2%)Double chanceX272.8%1.37
Plus de 41% · Moins de 59%Goals 2.5Moins de59%1.69
Oui 47% · Non 53%Les deux équipes marquentNon53%1.89
2.34 total expected goalsScore exact1–1
8.7 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.5%Largest probability gapSportivo Italiano winDifference+0.3 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Deportivo Merlo win27%3.703.3027.2%-0.2 pp
Nul31%3.232.8831.1%-0.1 pp
Sportivo Italiano win42%2.382.1541.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Deportivo Merlo1.00

Domicile share of expected goals 42.7%

Total expected goals2.34Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 41% · Moins de 59%

Sportivo Italiano1.34

Extérieur share of expected goals 57.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitOui 47% · Non 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Deportivo Merlo

1.20pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Points6

SignalDomicile unbeaten 4/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Sportivo Italiano

2.00pts / match
Joués5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalExtérieur unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
27%
Gagné probability excluding draw
42%
6
Points from supplied form
10
1.00
Expected goals
1.34
Deportivo MerloSportivo Italiano
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Deportivo Merlo signalDomicile unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sportivo Italiano signalExtérieur unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Deportivo Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à l’extérieur · Projected score 1–1 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Deportivo Merlo victoire 27%,Nul 31%,Sportivo Italiano victoire 42%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.34 · Plus de 2.5 41% · Current selection Moins de