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ARG Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · Round 29 ·

Deportivo Merlo vs Спортиво Итальяно

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score1–12.34 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев28%
Ничья32%
Победа гостей40%
Full model forecastПобеда гостейTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда гостей40% selection probability
Projected score1–1Deportivo MerloСпортиво Итальяно
Expected goals2.34Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Меньше59% for the selected side
Обе забьютНет53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Меньше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
28% / 32% / 40%Исход матчаПобеда гостей40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Deportivo Merlo win (28%)Двойной шансX272%1.39
Больше 41% · Меньше 59%Goals 2.5Меньше59%1.69
Да 47% · Нет 53%Обе забьютНет53%1.89
2.34 total expected goalsТочный счёт1–1
8.7 expected match cornersУгловыеМеньше 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.4%Largest probability gapDrawDifference-0.1 pp
OutcomeПрогнозСправедливый коэффициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Deportivo Merlo win28%3.573.2028%0.0 pp
Ничья32%3.132.8032.1%-0.1 pp
Спортиво Итальяно win40%2.502.2539.9%+0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Deportivo Merlo1.00

Хозяева share of expected goals 42.7%

Total expected goals2.34Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Больше 41% · Меньше 59%

Спортиво Итальяно1.34

Гости share of expected goals 57.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitДа 47% · Нет 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Deportivo Merlo

1.20pts / match
Сыграно5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Баллы6

SignalХозяева unbeaten 4/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Спортиво Итальяно

2.00pts / match
Сыграно5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Баллы10

SignalГости unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
28%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
40%
6
Points from supplied form
10
1.00
Expected goals
1.34
Deportivo MerloСпортиво Итальяно
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Deportivo Merlo signalХозяева unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Спортиво Итальяно signalГости unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 32%.

Match questions

Deportivo Merlo vs Спортиво Итальяно FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа гостей · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Deportivo Merlo выигрыш 28%,Ничья 32%,Спортиво Итальяно выигрыш 40%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.34 · ТБ 2.5 41% · Current selection Меньше