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ARG Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · Round 29 ·

Deportivo Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score1–12.34 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local27%
Empate31%
Victoria visitante42%
Full model forecastVictoria visitanteTier A · 42% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria visitante42% selection probability
Projected score1–1Deportivo MerloSportivo Italiano
Expected goals2.34Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de59% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
27% / 31% / 42%Resultado del partidoVictoria visitante42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Deportivo Merlo win (27.2%)Doble OportunidadX272.8%1.37
Más de 41% · Menos de 59%Goals 2.5Menos de59%1.69
Sí 47% · No 53%Ambos equipos marcanNo53%1.89
2.34 total expected goalsMarcador exacto1–1
8.7 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.5%Largest probability gapSportivo Italiano winDifference+0.3 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Deportivo Merlo win27%3.703.3027.2%-0.2 pp
Empate31%3.232.8831.1%-0.1 pp
Sportivo Italiano win42%2.382.1541.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Deportivo Merlo1.00

Local share of expected goals 42.7%

Total expected goals2.34Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Más de 41% · Menos de 59%

Sportivo Italiano1.34

Visitante share of expected goals 57.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 47% · No 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Deportivo Merlo

1.20pts / match
Jugados5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Puntos6

SignalLocal unbeaten 4/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Sportivo Italiano

2.00pts / match
Jugados5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Puntos10

SignalVisitante unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
27%
Ganado probability excluding draw
42%
6
Points from supplied form
10
1.00
Expected goals
1.34
Deportivo MerloSportivo Italiano
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Deportivo Merlo signalLocal unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sportivo Italiano signalVisitante unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Deportivo Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria visitante · Projected score 1–1 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Deportivo Merlo ganada 27%,Empate 31%,Sportivo Italiano ganada 42%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.34 · Más de 2.5 41% · Current selection Menos de