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ARG Argentina Torneo A · Spiel ·

CA Bartolomé Mitre vs CA Sarmiento de la Banda

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–01.06 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg41%
Unentschieden32%
Auswärtssieg27%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned DRAW Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg41% selection probability
Projected score1–0CA Bartolomé MitreCA Sarmiento de la Banda
Expected goals1.06Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Unter91% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein86% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
41% / 32% / 27%SpielergebnisHeimsieg41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes CA Sarmiento de la Banda win (26.5%)Doppelte Chance1X73.5%1.36
Über 9% · Unter 91%Goals 2.5Unter91%1.10
Ja 14% · Nein 86%Beide Teams treffenNein86%1.16
1.06 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–0
9.5 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.4%Largest probability gapCA Sarmiento de la Banda winDifference-1.0 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
CA Bartolomé Mitre win41%2.442.2040.8%+0.2 pp
Unentschieden32%3.132.8831.2%+0.8 pp
CA Sarmiento de la Banda win27%3.703.2028%-1.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

CA Bartolomé Mitre0.76

Heim share of expected goals 71.7%

Total expected goals1.06Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Über 9% · Unter 91%

CA Sarmiento de la Banda0.30

Auswärts share of expected goals 28.3%

Projected score1–0BTTS splitJa 14% · Nein 86%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

CA Bartolomé Mitre

0.80pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punkte4

SignalHeim matches under 2.5: 5/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

CA Sarmiento de la Banda

2.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punkte10

SignalHeim clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
27%
4
Points from supplied form
10
0.76
Expected goals
0.30
CA Bartolomé MitreCA Sarmiento de la Banda
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned DRAW

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01CA Bartolomé Mitre signalHeim matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02CA Sarmiento de la Banda signalHeim clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 32%.

Match questions

CA Bartolomé Mitre vs CA Sarmiento de la Banda FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 1–0 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

CA Bartolomé Mitre Gewinn 41%,Unentschieden 32%,CA Sarmiento de la Banda Gewinn 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.06 · Über 2.5 9% · Current selection Unter