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FIN Finland Veikkausliiga · Kamp ·

FC Ilves vs IFK Mariehamn

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score3–14.20 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr71%
Uafgjort17%
Udesejr12%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 71% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr71% selection probability
Projected score3–1FC IlvesIFK Mariehamn
Expected goals4.20Åbn match profile
Goals 2.5Over79% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerJa56% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
71% / 17% / 12%KampresultatHjemmesejr71%1.41
Derived from 1X2 · excludes IFK Mariehamn win (11.7%)Dobbeltchance1X88.3%1.13
Over 79% · Under 21%Goals 2.5Over79%1.27
Ja 56% · Nej 44%Begge hold scorerJa56%1.79
4.20 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat3–1
10.4 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
FC Ilves win71%1.41
Uafgjort17%5.88
IFK Mariehamn win12%8.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Ilves3.33

Hjemme share of expected goals 79.3%

Total expected goals4.20Åbn

Dedicated goals model: Over 79% · Under 21%

IFK Mariehamn0.87

Ude share of expected goals 20.7%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitJa 56% · Nej 44%Match profileÅbn
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

FC Ilves

1.40pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Point7

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Ude-context · form sequence

IFK Mariehamn

0.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Point1

SignalUde matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
71%
Vundet probability excluding draw
12%
7
Points from supplied form
1
3.33
Expected goals
0.87
FC IlvesIFK Mariehamn
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Ilves signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02IFK Mariehamn signalUde matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk29% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 17%.

Match questions

FC Ilves vs IFK Mariehamn FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 3–1 · 71% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Ilves vundet 71%,Uafgjort 17%,IFK Mariehamn vundet 12%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 4.20 · Over 2.5 79% · Current selection Over