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BRA Brazil Serie B · Round 20 ·

Ceara vs Ponte Preta

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.63 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr66%
Uafgjort23%
Udesejr11%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 66% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr66% selection probability
Projected score2–1CearaPonte Preta
Expected goals2.63Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under51% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej55% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
66% / 23% / 11%KampresultatHjemmesejr66%1.52
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Ponte Preta win (11.2%)Dobbeltchance1X88.8%1.13
Over 49% · Under 51%Goals 2.5Under51%1.96
Ja 45% · Nej 55%Begge hold scorerNej55%1.82
2.63 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.3 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.6%Largest probability gapCeara winDifference-0.1 pp
OutcomePrognoseFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Ceara win66%1.521.4266.1%-0.1 pp
Uafgjort23%4.354.1022.9%+0.1 pp
Ponte Preta win11%9.098.5011%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Ceara1.89

Hjemme share of expected goals 71.9%

Total expected goals2.63Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 49% · Under 51%

Ponte Preta0.74

Ude share of expected goals 28.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 45% · Nej 55%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Ceara

1.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Point5

SignalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Ponte Preta

0.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Point1

SignalHjemme failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
66%
Vundet probability excluding draw
11%
5
Points from supplied form
1
1.89
Expected goals
0.74
CearaPonte Preta
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Ceara signalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ponte Preta signalHjemme failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk34% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Ceara vs Ponte Preta FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 2–1 · 66% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Ceara vundet 66%,Uafgjort 23%,Ponte Preta vundet 11%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.63 · Over 2.5 49% · Current selection Under