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URY Uruguay Segunda · Kamp ·

Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs La Luz

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.24 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr44%
Uafgjort30%
Udesejr26%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr44% selection probability
Projected score1–1Atletico Fenix MontevideoLa Luz
Expected goals2.24Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under61% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej56% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
44% / 30% / 26%KampresultatHjemmesejr44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes La Luz win (25.9%)Dobbeltchance1X74.1%1.35
Over 39% · Under 61%Goals 2.5Under61%1.64
Ja 44% · Nej 56%Begge hold scorerNej56%1.79
2.24 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.9 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Atletico Fenix Montevideo win44%2.27
Uafgjort30%3.33
La Luz win26%3.85

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1.39

Hjemme share of expected goals 62.1%

Total expected goals2.24Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 39% · Under 61%

La Luz0.85

Ude share of expected goals 37.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 44% · Nej 56%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Atletico Fenix Montevideo

1.40pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Point7

SignalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

Ude-context · form sequence

La Luz

1.40pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Point7

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Vundet probability excluding draw
26%
7
Points from supplied form
7
1.39
Expected goals
0.85
Atletico Fenix MontevideoLa Luz
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Atletico Fenix Montevideo signalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02La Luz signalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs La Luz FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 1–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Atletico Fenix Montevideo vundet 44%,Uafgjort 30%,La Luz vundet 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.24 · Over 2.5 39% · Current selection Under