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PRT Portugal Segunda Liga · Round 1 ·

Penafiel vs Portimonense

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Chủ nhà form
Projected score1–12.43 expected goals
Khách form
Chủ nhà thắng40%
Hòa30%
Đội khách thắng30%
Full model forecastChủ nhà thắngTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callChủ nhà thắng40% selection probability
Projected score1–1PenafielPortimonense
Expected goals2.43Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Xỉu56% for the selected side
Cả hai đội ghi bànKhông51% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Xỉu 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketLựa chọnXác suấtTỷ lệ công bằng
40% / 30% / 30%Kết quả trận đấuChủ nhà thắng40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.7%)Cơ hội kép1270.3%1.42
Tài 44% · Xỉu 56%Goals 2.5Xỉu56%1.79
Có 49% · Không 51%Cả hai đội ghi bànKhông51%1.96
2.43 total expected goalsTỷ số chính xác1–1
9.5 expected match cornersPhạt gócXỉu 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Không snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityTỷ lệ công bằng
Penafiel win40%2.50
Hòa30%3.33
Portimonense win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Penafiel1.37

Chủ nhà share of expected goals 56.4%

Total expected goals2.43Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Tài 44% · Xỉu 56%

Portimonense1.06

Khách share of expected goals 43.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 49% · Không 51%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Chủ nhà-context · form sequence

Penafiel

1.20pts / match
Số trận5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Điểm6

SignalChủ nhà matches over 2.5: 4/5

Khách-context · form sequence

Portimonense

2.00pts / match
Số trận5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Điểm10

SignalChủ nhà clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
40%
Thắng probability excluding draw
30%
6
Points from supplied form
10
1.37
Expected goals
1.06
PenafielPortimonense
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Penafiel signalChủ nhà matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Portimonense signalChủ nhà clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Hòa probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Penafiel vs Portimonense FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Chủ nhà thắng · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Penafiel thắng 40%,Hòa 30%,Portimonense thắng 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.43 · Tài 2.5 44% · Current selection Xỉu