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PRT Portugal - Campeonato Nacional · Match ·

UD da Serra vs Alverca B

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–13.39 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger41%
Oavgjort29%
Bortaseger29%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger41% selection probability
Projected score2–1UD da SerraAlverca B
Expected goals3.39Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över66% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
41% / 29% / 29%MatchresultatHemmaseger41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.2%)Dubbelchans1270.8%1.41
Över 66% · Under 34%Goals 2.5Över66%1.52
Ja 57% · Nej 43%Båda lagen gör målJa57%1.75
3.39 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.3 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.3%Largest probability gapAlverca B winDifference-2.0 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
UD da Serra win41%2.442.3039.1%+1.9 pp
Oavgjort29%3.453.0030%-1.0 pp
Alverca B win29%3.452.9031%-2.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

UD da Serra2.41

Hemma share of expected goals 71.1%

Total expected goals3.39Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 66% · Under 34%

Alverca B0.98

Borta share of expected goals 28.9%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 57% · Nej 43%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

UD da Serra

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Alverca B

2.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Poäng12

SignalBorta unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
29%
7
Points from supplied form
12
2.41
Expected goals
0.98
UD da SerraAlverca B
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01UD da Serra signalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Alverca B signalBorta unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

UD da Serra vs Alverca B FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

UD da Serra vunnen 41%,Oavgjort 29%,Alverca B vunnen 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.39 · Över 2.5 66% · Current selection Över