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BGR Bulgarien - First League · Match ·

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–12.35 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger41%
Oavgjort28%
Bortaseger31%
Baseline forecastHemmasegerTier C · 41% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger41% selection probability
Projected score1–1Lokomotiv PlovdivDunav Ruse
Expected goals2.35Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under58% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
41% / 28% / 31%MatchresultatHemmaseger41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.8%)Dubbelchans1272.2%1.39
Över 42% · Under 58%Goals 2.5Under58%1.72
Ja 47% · Nej 53%Båda lagen gör målNej53%1.89
2.35 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
8.9 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win41%2.44
Oavgjort28%3.57
Dunav Ruse win31%3.23

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv1.28

Hemma share of expected goals 54.5%

Total expected goals2.35Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 42% · Under 58%

Dunav Ruse1.07

Borta share of expected goals 45.5%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 47% · Nej 53%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poäng6

SignalHemma matches under 2.5: 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Dunav Ruse

0.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Poäng1

SignalHemma failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
31%
6
Points from supplied form
1
1.28
Expected goals
1.07
Lokomotiv PlovdivDunav Ruse
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Lokomotiv Plovdiv signalHemma matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Dunav Ruse signalHemma failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vunnen 41%,Oavgjort 28%,Dunav Ruse vunnen 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.35 · Över 2.5 42% · Current selection Under