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LVA Latvia 1. Liga · Match ·

FK Smiltene/BJSS vs Valmiera FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–34.17 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger7%
Oavgjort12%
Bortaseger81%
Full model forecastBortasegerTier A · 81% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callBortaseger81% selection probability
Projected score1–3FK Smiltene/BJSSValmiera FC
Expected goals4.17Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över79% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej50% for the selected side
Expected corners11.7Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
7% / 12% / 81%MatchresultatBortaseger81%1.23
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FK Smiltene/BJSS win (7.3%)DubbelchansX292.7%1.08
Över 79% · Under 21%Goals 2.5Över79%1.27
Ja 50% · Nej 50%Båda lagen gör målNej50%2.00
4.17 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–3
11.7 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin9.4%Largest probability gapValmiera FC winDifference+0.8 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FK Smiltene/BJSS win7%14.2912.007.6%-0.6 pp
Oavgjort12%8.337.5012.2%-0.2 pp
Valmiera FC win81%1.231.1480.2%+0.8 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FK Smiltene/BJSS0.72

Hemma share of expected goals 17.3%

Total expected goals4.17Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 79% · Under 21%

Valmiera FC3.45

Borta share of expected goals 82.7%

Projected score1–3BTTS splitJa 50% · Nej 50%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

FK Smiltene/BJSS

1.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poäng6

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Valmiera FC

3.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Poäng15

SignalBorta unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
7%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
81%
6
Points from supplied form
15
0.72
Expected goals
3.45
FK Smiltene/BJSSValmiera FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FK Smiltene/BJSS signalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Valmiera FC signalBorta unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk19% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 12%.

Match questions

FK Smiltene/BJSS vs Valmiera FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Bortaseger · Projected score 1–3 · 81% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FK Smiltene/BJSS vunnen 7%,Oavgjort 12%,Valmiera FC vunnen 81%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 4.17 · Över 2.5 79% · Current selection Över