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ENG England - National League North · Match ·

Chorley vs Chester

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–12.51 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger37%
Oavgjort27%
Bortaseger36%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger37% selection probability
Projected score1–1ChorleyChester
Expected goals2.51Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under54% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa51% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
37% / 27% / 36%MatchresultatHemmaseger37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.8%)Dubbelchans1273.2%1.37
Över 46% · Under 54%Goals 2.5Under54%1.85
Ja 51% · Nej 49%Båda lagen gör målJa51%1.96
2.51 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.4 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin10.2%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.3 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Chorley win37%2.702.4537%0.0 pp
Oavgjort27%3.703.4026.7%+0.3 pp
Chester win36%2.782.5036.3%-0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Chorley1.32

Hemma share of expected goals 52.6%

Total expected goals2.51Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 46% · Under 54%

Chester1.19

Borta share of expected goals 47.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 51% · Nej 49%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Chorley

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma won 2/3 recent home matches

Borta-context · form sequence

Chester

2.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poäng10

SignalBorta unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
37%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
36%
7
Points from supplied form
10
1.32
Expected goals
1.19
ChorleyChester
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Chorley signalHemma won 2/3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Chester signalBorta unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Chorley vs Chester FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Chorley vunnen 37%,Oavgjort 27%,Chester vunnen 36%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.51 · Över 2.5 46% · Current selection Under