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INT Australien - NPL Victoria - Damer · Match ·

Avondale (D) vs South Melbourne (D)

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–12.74 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger54%
Oavgjort24%
Bortaseger22%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 54% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger54% selection probability
Projected score2–1Avondale (D)South Melbourne (D)
Expected goals2.74Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Över52% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa55% for the selected side
Expected corners8.2Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
54% / 24% / 22%MatchresultatHemmaseger54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes South Melbourne (D) win (21.9%)Dubbelchans1X78.1%1.28
Över 52% · Under 48%Goals 2.5Över52%1.92
Ja 55% · Nej 45%Båda lagen gör målJa55%1.82
2.74 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
8.2 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.1%Largest probability gapAvondale (D) winDifference-0.6 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Avondale (D) win54%1.851.6554.6%-0.6 pp
Oavgjort24%4.173.7524%0.0 pp
South Melbourne (D) win22%4.554.2021.4%+0.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Avondale (D)1.58

Hemma share of expected goals 57.7%

Total expected goals2.74Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 52% · Under 48%

South Melbourne (D)1.16

Borta share of expected goals 42.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 55% · Nej 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Avondale (D)

3.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Poäng15

SignalHemma unbeaten 5/5

Borta-context · form sequence

South Melbourne (D)

1.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Poäng5

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
54%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
22%
15
Points from supplied form
5
1.58
Expected goals
1.16
Avondale (D)South Melbourne (D)
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Avondale (D) signalHemma unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02South Melbourne (D) signalHemma matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Avondale (D) vs South Melbourne (D) FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Avondale (D) vunnen 54%,Oavgjort 24%,South Melbourne (D) vunnen 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.74 · Över 2.5 52% · Current selection Över