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HRV Croatia - HNL · Meci ·

HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score1–12.07 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde16%
Egal25%
Victorie oaspeți58%
Full model forecastVictorie oaspețiTier A · 58% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie oaspeți58% selection probability
Projected score1–1HNK GoricaHNK Rijeka
Expected goals2.07Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sub66% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu59% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
16% / 25% / 58%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie oaspeți58%1.72
Derived from 1X2 · excludes HNK Gorica win (16.3%)Șansă dublăX283.7%1.19
Peste 34% · Sub 66%Goals 2.5Sub66%1.52
Da 41% · Nu 59%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu59%1.69
2.07 total expected goalsScor corect1–1
9.3 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.8%Largest probability gapHNK Rijeka winDifference-1.6 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
HNK Gorica win16%6.255.7515.6%+0.4 pp
Egal25%4.003.6024.8%+0.2 pp
HNK Rijeka win58%1.721.5059.6%-1.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

HNK Gorica0.86

Gazde share of expected goals 41.5%

Total expected goals2.07Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Peste 34% · Sub 66%

HNK Rijeka1.21

Oaspeți share of expected goals 58.5%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitDa 41% · Nu 59%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

HNK Gorica

0.00pts / match
Jucate5Wins0Drawn0Losses5Puncte0

SignalGazde failed to score: 3/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

HNK Rijeka

1.40pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Puncte7

SignalOaspeți matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
16%
Câștig probability excluding draw
58%
0
Points from supplied form
7
0.86
Expected goals
1.21
HNK GoricaHNK Rijeka
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01HNK Gorica signalGazde failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02HNK Rijeka signalOaspeți matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk42% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie oaspeți · Projected score 1–1 · 58% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

HNK Gorica câștig 16%,Egal 25%,HNK Rijeka câștig 58%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.07 · Peste 2.5 34% · Current selection Sub