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HRV Croatia HNL · Fixture ·

HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.07 expected goals
Away form
Home win16%
Draw25%
Away win58%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 58% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win58% selection probability
Projected score1–1HNK GoricaHNK Rijeka
Expected goals2.07Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under66% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo59% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
16% / 25% / 58%Match resultAway win58%1.72
Derived from 1X2 · excludes HNK Gorica win (16.3%)Double chanceX283.7%1.19
Over 34% · Under 66%Goals 2.5Under66%1.52
Yes 41% · No 59%Both teams scoreNo59%1.69
2.07 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.3 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.8%Largest probability gapHNK Rijeka winDifference-1.6 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
HNK Gorica win16%6.255.7515.6%+0.4 pp
Draw25%4.003.6024.8%+0.2 pp
HNK Rijeka win58%1.721.5059.6%-1.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

HNK Gorica0.86

Home share of expected goals 41.5%

Total expected goals2.07Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 34% · Under 66%

HNK Rijeka1.21

Away share of expected goals 58.5%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 41% · No 59%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

HNK Gorica

0.00pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn0Losses5Points0

SignalHome failed to score: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

HNK Rijeka

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalAway matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
16%
Win probability excluding draw
58%
0
Points from supplied form
7
0.86
Expected goals
1.21
HNK GoricaHNK Rijeka
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01HNK Gorica signalHome failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02HNK Rijeka signalAway matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk42% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 58% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

HNK Gorica win 16%,Draw 25%,HNK Rijeka win 58%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.07 · Over 2.5 34% · Current selection Under