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PRY Paraguay Division Profesional · Meci ·

Nacional Asunción vs Guarani Asuncion

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score1–12.17 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde39%
Egal31%
Victorie oaspeți29%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde39% selection probability
Projected score1–1Nacional AsunciónGuarani Asuncion
Expected goals2.17Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sub63% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu56% for the selected side
Expected corners8.3Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
39% / 31% / 29%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Guarani Asuncion win (29.4%)Șansă dublă1X70.6%1.42
Peste 37% · Sub 63%Goals 2.5Sub63%1.59
Da 44% · Nu 56%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu56%1.79
2.17 total expected goalsScor corect1–1
8.3 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nu snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCotă corectă
Nacional Asunción win39%2.56
Egal31%3.23
Guarani Asuncion win29%3.45

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Nacional Asunción1.23

Gazde share of expected goals 56.7%

Total expected goals2.17Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Peste 37% · Sub 63%

Guarani Asuncion0.94

Oaspeți share of expected goals 43.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitDa 44% · Nu 56%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Nacional Asunción

1.60pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Puncte8

SignalGazde unbeaten 4/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Guarani Asuncion

1.80pts / match
Jucate5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Puncte9

SignalOaspeți won 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
39%
Câștig probability excluding draw
29%
8
Points from supplied form
9
1.23
Expected goals
0.94
Nacional AsunciónGuarani Asuncion
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Nacional Asunción signalGazde unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Guarani Asuncion signalOaspeți won 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Nacional Asunción vs Guarani Asuncion FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Nacional Asunción câștig 39%,Egal 31%,Guarani Asuncion câștig 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.17 · Peste 2.5 37% · Current selection Sub