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TijdzoneAsia/Shanghai
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PRY Paraguay Division Profesional · Wedstrijd ·

Nacional Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score1–12.17 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst39%
Gelijkspel31%
Uitwinst30%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst39% selection probability
Projected score1–1Nacional AsuncionGuarani Asuncion
Expected goals2.17Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Onder63% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee56% for the selected side
Expected corners8.3Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
39% / 31% / 30%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Guarani Asuncion win (29.5%)Dubbele Kans1X70.5%1.42
Boven 37% · Onder 63%Goals 2.5Onder63%1.59
Ja 44% · Nee 56%Beide teams scorenNee56%1.79
2.17 total expected goalsExacte score1–1
8.3 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Nacional Asuncion win39%2.56
Gelijkspel31%3.23
Guarani Asuncion win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Nacional Asuncion1.23

Thuis share of expected goals 56.7%

Total expected goals2.17Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Boven 37% · Onder 63%

Guarani Asuncion0.94

Uit share of expected goals 43.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 44% · Nee 56%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Nacional Asuncion

1.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punten8

SignalThuis unbeaten 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Guarani Asuncion

1.80pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punten9

SignalUit won 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
39%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
30%
8
Points from supplied form
9
1.23
Expected goals
0.94
Nacional AsuncionGuarani Asuncion
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Nacional Asuncion signalThuis unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Guarani Asuncion signalUit won 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Nacional Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Nacional Asuncion gewonnen 39%,Gelijkspel 31%,Guarani Asuncion gewonnen 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.17 · Boven 2.5 37% · Current selection Onder