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ARG Argentina Liga Profesional · Meci ·

Defensa y Justicia vs Newell's

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score2–12.84 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde44%
Egal31%
Victorie oaspeți25%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde44% selection probability
Projected score2–1Defensa y JusticiaNewell's
Expected goals2.84Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Peste54% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăDa56% for the selected side
Expected corners8.6Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
44% / 31% / 25%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Newell's win (25.4%)Șansă dublă1X74.6%1.34
Peste 54% · Sub 46%Goals 2.5Peste54%1.85
Da 56% · Nu 44%Ambele echipe marcheazăDa56%1.79
2.84 total expected goalsScor corect2–1
8.6 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapDefensa y Justicia winDifference+0.9 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Defensa y Justicia win44%2.272.2043.1%+0.9 pp
Egal31%3.233.0031.6%-0.6 pp
Newell's win25%4.003.7525.3%-0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Defensa y Justicia1.68

Gazde share of expected goals 59.2%

Total expected goals2.84Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 54% · Sub 46%

Newell's1.16

Oaspeți share of expected goals 40.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitDa 56% · Nu 44%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Defensa y Justicia

0.80pts / match
Jucate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Puncte4

SignalGazde matches over 2.5: 4/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Newell's

1.20pts / match
Jucate5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Puncte6

SignalOaspeți unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Câștig probability excluding draw
25%
4
Points from supplied form
6
1.68
Expected goals
1.16
Defensa y JusticiaNewell's
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Defensa y Justicia signalGazde matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Newell's signalOaspeți unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Defensa y Justicia vs Newell's FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Defensa y Justicia câștig 44%,Egal 31%,Newell's câștig 25%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.84 · Peste 2.5 54% · Current selection Peste