Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
44% / 31% / 25%Match resultHome win44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Newell's win (25.4%)Double chance1X74.6%1.34
Over 54% · Under 46%Goals 2.5Over54%1.85
Yes 56% · No 44%Both teams scoreYes56%1.79
2.84 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1——
8.6 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5——
Price comparison
Published forecast vs reference market
Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.
Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapDefensa y Justicia winDifference+0.9 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Defensa y Justicia win44%2.272.2043.1%+0.9 pp
Draw31%3.233.0031.6%-0.6 pp
Newell's win25%4.003.7525.3%-0.3 pp
Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 59.2%
Total expected goals2.84Balanced
Dedicated goals model: Over 54% · Under 46%
Away share of expected goals 40.8%
Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 56% · No 44%Match profileBalanced
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
0.80pts / matchDefensa y Justicia
LWDLL
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4
SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5
Away-context · form sequence
1.20pts / matchNewell's
DLWDD
Played5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Points6
SignalAway unbeaten 4/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
44%
Win probability excluding draw
25%4
Points from supplied form
61.68
Expected goals
1.16Defensa y JusticiaNewell's
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Model and market agree on HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 31%.
Match questions
Defensa y Justicia vs Newell's FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Defensa y Justicia win 44%，Draw 31%，Newell's win 25%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.84 · Over 2.5 54% · Current selection Over。