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POL Polonia - Ekstraklasa · Round 1 ·

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Widzew Lodz

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score2–12.34 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde50%
Egal29%
Victorie oaspeți21%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde50% selection probability
Projected score2–1Jagiellonia BialystokWidzew Lodz
Expected goals2.34Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sub59% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu58% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
50% / 29% / 21%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Widzew Lodz win (21.5%)Șansă dublă1X78.5%1.27
Peste 41% · Sub 59%Goals 2.5Sub59%1.69
Da 42% · Nu 58%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu58%1.72
2.34 total expected goalsScor corect2–1
9.2 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nu snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCotă corectă
Jagiellonia Bialystok win50%2.00
Egal29%3.45
Widzew Lodz win21%4.76

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Jagiellonia Bialystok1.60

Gazde share of expected goals 68.4%

Total expected goals2.34Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Peste 41% · Sub 59%

Widzew Lodz0.74

Oaspeți share of expected goals 31.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitDa 42% · Nu 58%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Jagiellonia Bialystok

3.00pts / match
Jucate5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Puncte15

SignalGazde unbeaten 5/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Widzew Lodz

1.60pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Puncte8

SignalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Câștig probability excluding draw
21%
15
Points from supplied form
8
1.60
Expected goals
0.74
Jagiellonia BialystokWidzew Lodz
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Jagiellonia Bialystok signalGazde unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Widzew Lodz signalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Widzew Lodz FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 2–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Jagiellonia Bialystok câștig 50%,Egal 29%,Widzew Lodz câștig 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.34 · Peste 2.5 41% · Current selection Sub