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POL Poland Ekstraklasa · Round 1 ·

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Widzew Lodz

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–12.34 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg50%
Unentschieden29%
Auswärtssieg21%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg50% selection probability
Projected score2–1Jagiellonia BialystokWidzew Lodz
Expected goals2.34Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Unter59% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein58% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
50% / 29% / 21%SpielergebnisHeimsieg50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Widzew Lodz win (21.5%)Doppelte Chance1X78.5%1.27
Über 41% · Unter 59%Goals 2.5Unter59%1.69
Ja 42% · Nein 58%Beide Teams treffenNein58%1.72
2.34 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
9.2 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
Jagiellonia Bialystok win50%2.00
Unentschieden29%3.45
Widzew Lodz win21%4.76

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Jagiellonia Bialystok1.60

Heim share of expected goals 68.4%

Total expected goals2.34Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Über 41% · Unter 59%

Widzew Lodz0.74

Auswärts share of expected goals 31.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 42% · Nein 58%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Jagiellonia Bialystok

3.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Punkte15

SignalHeim unbeaten 5/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Widzew Lodz

1.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punkte8

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
21%
15
Points from supplied form
8
1.60
Expected goals
0.74
Jagiellonia BialystokWidzew Lodz
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Jagiellonia Bialystok signalHeim unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Widzew Lodz signalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Widzew Lodz FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Jagiellonia Bialystok Gewinn 50%,Unentschieden 29%,Widzew Lodz Gewinn 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.34 · Über 2.5 41% · Current selection Unter