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POL Poland Ekstraklasa · Round 1 ·

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Widzew Lódz

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score2–12.34 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local50%
Empate29%
Victoria visitante22%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local50% selection probability
Projected score2–1Jagiellonia BialystokWidzew Lódz
Expected goals2.34Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de58% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo58% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
50% / 29% / 22%Resultado del partidoVictoria local50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Widzew Lódz win (21.5%)Doble Oportunidad1X78.5%1.27
Más de 42% · Menos de 58%Goals 2.5Menos de58%1.72
Sí 42% · No 58%Ambos equipos marcanNo58%1.72
2.34 total expected goalsMarcador exacto2–1
9.2 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCuotas justas
Jagiellonia Bialystok win50%2.00
Empate29%3.45
Widzew Lódz win22%4.55

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Jagiellonia Bialystok1.60

Local share of expected goals 68.4%

Total expected goals2.34Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Más de 42% · Menos de 58%

Widzew Lódz0.74

Visitante share of expected goals 31.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 42% · No 58%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Jagiellonia Bialystok

3.00pts / match
Jugados5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Puntos15

SignalLocal unbeaten 5/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Widzew Lódz

1.60pts / match
Jugados5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Puntos8

SignalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Ganado probability excluding draw
22%
15
Points from supplied form
8
1.60
Expected goals
0.74
Jagiellonia BialystokWidzew Lódz
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Jagiellonia Bialystok signalLocal unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Widzew Lódz signalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Widzew Lódz FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 2–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Jagiellonia Bialystok ganada 50%,Empate 29%,Widzew Lódz ganada 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.34 · Más de 2.5 42% · Current selection Menos de