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POL Poland Ekstraklasa · Round 1 ·

Korona Kielce vs Legia Warschau

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–11.98 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg36%
Unentschieden32%
Auswärtssieg32%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 36% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg36% selection probability
Projected score1–1Korona KielceLegia Warschau
Expected goals1.98Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Unter68% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein60% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
36% / 32% / 32%SpielergebnisHeimsieg36%2.78
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Legia Warschau win (32.1%)Doppelte Chance1X67.9%1.47
Über 32% · Unter 68%Goals 2.5Unter68%1.47
Ja 40% · Nein 60%Beide Teams treffenNein60%1.67
1.98 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–1
9.2 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
Korona Kielce win36%2.78
Unentschieden32%3.13
Legia Warschau win32%3.13

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Korona Kielce1.04

Heim share of expected goals 52.5%

Total expected goals1.98Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Über 32% · Unter 68%

Legia Warschau0.94

Auswärts share of expected goals 47.5%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 40% · Nein 60%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Korona Kielce

1.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punkte5

SignalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Legia Warschau

3.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Punkte15

SignalHeim clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
32%
5
Points from supplied form
15
1.04
Expected goals
0.94
Korona KielceLegia Warschau
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Korona Kielce signalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Legia Warschau signalHeim clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk64% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 32%.

Match questions

Korona Kielce vs Legia Warschau FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 1–1 · 36% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Korona Kielce Gewinn 36%,Unentschieden 32%,Legia Warschau Gewinn 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.98 · Über 2.5 32% · Current selection Unter