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POL Polonia - Ekstraklasa · Round 1 ·

Korona Kielce vs Legia Varsovia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score1–11.98 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde36%
Egal32%
Victorie oaspeți32%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 36% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde36% selection probability
Projected score1–1Korona KielceLegia Varsovia
Expected goals1.98Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sub68% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu60% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
36% / 32% / 32%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde36%2.78
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Legia Varsovia win (32.1%)Șansă dublă1X67.9%1.47
Peste 32% · Sub 68%Goals 2.5Sub68%1.47
Da 40% · Nu 60%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu60%1.67
1.98 total expected goalsScor corect1–1
9.2 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nu snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCotă corectă
Korona Kielce win36%2.78
Egal32%3.13
Legia Varsovia win32%3.13

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Korona Kielce1.04

Gazde share of expected goals 52.5%

Total expected goals1.98Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Peste 32% · Sub 68%

Legia Varsovia0.94

Oaspeți share of expected goals 47.5%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitDa 40% · Nu 60%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Korona Kielce

1.00pts / match
Jucate5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Puncte5

SignalGazde matches under 2.5: 4/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Legia Varsovia

3.00pts / match
Jucate5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Puncte15

SignalGazde clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Câștig probability excluding draw
32%
5
Points from supplied form
15
1.04
Expected goals
0.94
Korona KielceLegia Varsovia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Korona Kielce signalGazde matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Legia Varsovia signalGazde clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk64% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 32%.

Match questions

Korona Kielce vs Legia Varsovia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 1–1 · 36% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Korona Kielce câștig 36%,Egal 32%,Legia Varsovia câștig 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.98 · Peste 2.5 32% · Current selection Sub