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JPN Japan - J3-League · Round 1 ·

Kochi United vs Matsumoto Y Fc

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score1–11.57 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst36%
Gelijkspel29%
Uitwinst35%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 36% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst36% selection probability
Projected score1–1Kochi UnitedMatsumoto Y Fc
Expected goals1.57Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Onder79% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee73% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
36% / 29% / 35%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst36%2.78
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.7%)Dubbele Kans1271.3%1.40
Boven 21% · Onder 79%Goals 2.5Onder79%1.27
Ja 27% · Nee 73%Beide teams scorenNee73%1.37
1.57 total expected goalsExacte score1–1
9.3 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.3%Largest probability gapKochi United winDifference-1.8 pp
OutcomeVoorspellingEerlijke oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Kochi United win36%2.782.3837.8%-1.8 pp
Gelijkspel29%3.453.2028.1%+0.9 pp
Matsumoto Y Fc win35%2.862.6334.2%+0.8 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Kochi United0.53

Thuis share of expected goals 33.8%

Total expected goals1.57Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Boven 21% · Onder 79%

Matsumoto Y Fc1.04

Uit share of expected goals 66.2%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 27% · Nee 73%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Kochi United

0.80pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punten4

SignalThuis matches under 2.5: 5/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Matsumoto Y Fc

2.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punten10

SignalThuis clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
35%
4
Points from supplied form
10
0.53
Expected goals
1.04
Kochi UnitedMatsumoto Y Fc
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Kochi United signalThuis matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Matsumoto Y Fc signalThuis clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk64% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Kochi United vs Matsumoto Y Fc FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 1–1 · 36% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Kochi United gewonnen 36%,Gelijkspel 29%,Matsumoto Y Fc gewonnen 35%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.57 · Boven 2.5 21% · Current selection Onder