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SCO Schotland - Premiership · Round 1 ·

Hibernian vs Kilmarnock

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–13.45 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst59%
Gelijkspel23%
Uitwinst18%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 59% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst59% selection probability
Projected score2–1HibernianKilmarnock
Expected goals3.45Openen match profile
Goals 2.5Boven67% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa57% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
59% / 23% / 18%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst59%1.69
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Kilmarnock win (18.3%)Dubbele Kans1X81.7%1.22
Boven 67% · Onder 33%Goals 2.5Boven67%1.49
Ja 57% · Nee 43%Beide teams scorenJa57%1.75
3.45 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
10.1 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Hibernian win59%1.69
Gelijkspel23%4.35
Kilmarnock win18%5.56

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Hibernian2.48

Thuis share of expected goals 71.9%

Total expected goals3.45Openen

Dedicated goals model: Boven 67% · Onder 33%

Kilmarnock0.97

Uit share of expected goals 28.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 57% · Nee 43%Match profileOpenen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Hibernian

1.20pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punten6

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Kilmarnock

1.80pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punten9

SignalThuis failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
59%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
18%
6
Points from supplied form
9
2.48
Expected goals
0.97
HibernianKilmarnock
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Hibernian signalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Kilmarnock signalThuis failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk41% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Hibernian vs Kilmarnock FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 59% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Hibernian gewonnen 59%,Gelijkspel 23%,Kilmarnock gewonnen 18%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.45 · Boven 2.5 67% · Current selection Boven