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SCO Schotland - League One · Round 1 ·

Hamilton vs Alloa

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score1–12.45 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst53%
Gelijkspel27%
Uitwinst20%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 53% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst53% selection probability
Projected score1–1HamiltonAlloa
Expected goals2.45Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Onder56% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee50% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
53% / 27% / 20%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst53%1.89
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Alloa win (19.7%)Dubbele Kans1X80.3%1.25
Boven 44% · Onder 56%Goals 2.5Onder56%1.79
Ja 50% · Nee 50%Beide teams scorenNee50%2.00
2.45 total expected goalsExacte score1–1
10.2 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin10.3%Largest probability gapHamilton winDifference-1.3 pp
OutcomeVoorspellingEerlijke oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Hamilton win53%1.891.6754.3%-1.3 pp
Gelijkspel27%3.703.4026.7%+0.3 pp
Alloa win20%5.004.7519.1%+0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Hamilton1.38

Thuis share of expected goals 56.3%

Total expected goals2.45Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 44% · Onder 56%

Alloa1.07

Uit share of expected goals 43.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 50% · Nee 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Hamilton

2.40pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Punten12

SignalThuis unbeaten 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Alloa

0.80pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punten4

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
53%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
20%
12
Points from supplied form
4
1.38
Expected goals
1.07
HamiltonAlloa
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Hamilton signalThuis unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Alloa signalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk47% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Hamilton vs Alloa FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 1–1 · 53% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Hamilton gewonnen 53%,Gelijkspel 27%,Alloa gewonnen 20%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.45 · Boven 2.5 44% · Current selection Onder