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SCO Scozia - League 1 · Round 1 ·

Hamilton vs Alloa

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–12.45 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa53%
Pareggio27%
Vittoria ospite20%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 53% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa53% selection probability
Projected score1–1HamiltonAlloa
Expected goals2.45Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto56% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo50% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Sopra 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
53% / 27% / 20%Esito partitaVittoria casa53%1.89
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Alloa win (19.7%)Doppia Chance1X80.3%1.25
Sopra 44% · Sotto 56%Goals 2.5Sotto56%1.79
Sì 50% · No 50%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo50%2.00
2.45 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–1
10.2 expected match cornersCornerSopra 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin10.3%Largest probability gapHamilton winDifference-1.3 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Hamilton win53%1.891.6754.3%-1.3 pp
Pareggio27%3.703.4026.7%+0.3 pp
Alloa win20%5.004.7519.1%+0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Hamilton1.38

Casa share of expected goals 56.3%

Total expected goals2.45Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 44% · Sotto 56%

Alloa1.07

Trasferta share of expected goals 43.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 50% · No 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Hamilton

2.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Punti12

SignalCasa unbeaten 4/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Alloa

0.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punti4

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
53%
Vinta probability excluding draw
20%
12
Points from supplied form
4
1.38
Expected goals
1.07
HamiltonAlloa
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Hamilton signalCasa unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Alloa signalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk47% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Hamilton vs Alloa FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 1–1 · 53% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Hamilton vinta 53%,Pareggio 27%,Alloa vinta 20%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.45 · Sopra 2.5 44% · Current selection Sotto