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SCO Écosse - League One · Round 1 ·

Hamilton vs Alloa

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score1–12.45 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile53%
Nul27%
Victoire à l’extérieur20%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 53% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile53% selection probability
Projected score1–1HamiltonAlloa
Expected goals2.45Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de56% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon50% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Plus de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
53% / 27% / 20%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile53%1.89
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Alloa win (19.7%)Double chance1X80.3%1.25
Plus de 44% · Moins de 56%Goals 2.5Moins de56%1.79
Oui 50% · Non 50%Les deux équipes marquentNon50%2.00
2.45 total expected goalsScore exact1–1
10.2 expected match cornersCornersPlus de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin10.3%Largest probability gapHamilton winDifference-1.3 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Hamilton win53%1.891.6754.3%-1.3 pp
Nul27%3.703.4026.7%+0.3 pp
Alloa win20%5.004.7519.1%+0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Hamilton1.38

Domicile share of expected goals 56.3%

Total expected goals2.45Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 44% · Moins de 56%

Alloa1.07

Extérieur share of expected goals 43.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitOui 50% · Non 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Hamilton

2.40pts / match
Joués5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12

SignalDomicile unbeaten 4/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Alloa

0.80pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
53%
Gagné probability excluding draw
20%
12
Points from supplied form
4
1.38
Expected goals
1.07
HamiltonAlloa
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Hamilton signalDomicile unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Alloa signalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk47% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Hamilton vs Alloa FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 1–1 · 53% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Hamilton victoire 53%,Nul 27%,Alloa victoire 20%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.45 · Plus de 2.5 44% · Current selection Moins de