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ENG Engeland - National League · Round 1 ·

Altrincham vs Southend

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score1–22.47 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst26%
Gelijkspel29%
Uitwinst45%
Full model forecastUitwinstTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callUitwinst45% selection probability
Projected score1–2AltrinchamSouthend
Expected goals2.47Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Onder55% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
26% / 29% / 45%WedstrijdresultaatUitwinst45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Altrincham win (26.3%)Dubbele KansX273.7%1.36
Boven 45% · Onder 55%Goals 2.5Onder55%1.82
Ja 48% · Nee 52%Beide teams scorenNee52%1.92
2.47 total expected goalsExacte score1–2
10.2 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Altrincham win26%3.85
Gelijkspel29%3.45
Southend win45%2.22

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Altrincham0.95

Thuis share of expected goals 38.5%

Total expected goals2.47Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 45% · Onder 55%

Southend1.52

Uit share of expected goals 61.5%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJa 48% · Nee 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Altrincham

1.80pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punten9

SignalThuis won 3/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Southend

1.80pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punten9

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
26%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
45%
9
Points from supplied form
9
0.95
Expected goals
1.52
AltrinchamSouthend
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Altrincham signalThuis won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Southend signalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Altrincham vs Southend FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Uitwinst · Projected score 1–2 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Altrincham gewonnen 26%,Gelijkspel 29%,Southend gewonnen 45%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.47 · Boven 2.5 45% · Current selection Onder