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TijdzoneAsia/Shanghai
Nederlands
ENG Engeland - National League · Round 1 ·

Carlisle vs Worthing

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–12.88 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst43%
Gelijkspel25%
Uitwinst32%
Baseline forecastThuiswinstTier C · 43% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst43% selection probability
Projected score2–1CarlisleWorthing
Expected goals2.88Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Boven55% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa58% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
43% / 25% / 32%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.6%)Dubbele Kans1275.4%1.33
Boven 55% · Onder 45%Goals 2.5Boven55%1.82
Ja 58% · Nee 42%Beide teams scorenJa58%1.72
2.88 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
9.9 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Carlisle win43%2.33
Gelijkspel25%4.00
Worthing win32%3.13

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Carlisle1.57

Thuis share of expected goals 54.5%

Total expected goals2.88Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 55% · Onder 45%

Worthing1.31

Uit share of expected goals 45.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 58% · Nee 42%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Carlisle

2.20pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punten11

SignalThuis unbeaten 5/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Worthing

2.40pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Punten12

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
32%
11
Points from supplied form
12
1.57
Expected goals
1.31
CarlisleWorthing
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Carlisle signalThuis unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Worthing signalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Carlisle vs Worthing FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Carlisle gewonnen 43%,Gelijkspel 25%,Worthing gewonnen 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.88 · Boven 2.5 55% · Current selection Boven